ONLY PFIZER WILL SURVIVE WHEN GENERICS TAKE OVER SCHIZOPHRENIA MARKET, ANALYSIS SAYS

By 2010, generics will dominate the schizophrenia drug market, and Pfizer will be the only major drug firm to maintain a strong position after its current leading antipsychotic goes generic, according to an Aug. 11 report by research firm Datamonitor.

All other big pharma companies participating in the market will see their market share dwindle, according to the report, while Pfizer will benefit from its experimental antipsychotic asenapine.

However, while Pfizer's drug looks to be the most promising, leading physicians in the field feel schizophrenia drugs now in late-stage development do not offer any vast improvements over current therapies, according to Alistair Sinclair, author of the report, "Pipeline Insight: Schizophrenia -- Asenapine; a Future Market Leader?" Generic schizophrenia drugs are expected to claim 26 percent of the market by 2015, he said.

In its 2005 annual report released in March, Pfizer said it intends to file a new drug application in 2006 or 2007 for asenapine, intended to treat schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Pfizer said it is co-developing asenapine with Organon. Pfizer's current lead schizophrenia drug, Geodon (ziprasidone HCl or ziprasidone mesylate), had sales of $589 million in 2005, up 26 percent from 2004.

Sinclair cited a 1999 study that ranked schizophrenia as the third most disabling condition. With more than one-third of schizophrenics also suffering from a psychiatric or learning disorder such as anxiety, depression or substance abuse, developing a drug that could treat both schizophrenia and the accompanying conditions "would undoubtedly be a market leader," he said.

New treatments that are more easily tolerated and more cost-effective will also have a better chance of gaining a foothold in the post-2010 market, Sinclair said.