WALL STREET ANALYSIS SHOWS UNEXPECTED GROWTH IN STATIN MARKET

The overall cholesterol drug market is growing faster than anticipated, with the introduction of generic Zocor not hurting the competition, according to one analyst.

Compared with the same period a year ago, total cholesterol drug prescriptions are up 14 percent, Merrill Lynch analyst David Risinger said in a Sept. 26 research report. He now predicts market growth of 13 percent in 2006, up from his previous forecast of 12 percent.

During the past three months, generic and brand versions of Zocor (simvastatin) combined have captured 20.4 percent of the market share, compared with the expected 20.1 percent. Meanwhile, market share for brand and generic versions of Merck's Mevacor (lovastatin) rose to 8.5 percent over the 8.3 percent estimate. "We have been surprised that generic lovastatin is continuing to grow strongly despite the introduction of generic Zocor, which is a superior product," Risinger wrote. Teva Pharmaceutical launched a version of Merck's Zocor in June.

In fact, of all the key products in the cholesterol class, Risinger raised his Mevacor forecast the most -- 9.1 percent growth in 2006 versus 2005, up from his old estimate of 8.5 percent.

But Pfizer's Lipitor (atorvastatin calcium) and Bristol-Myers Squibb's Pravachol (pravastatin) have lost more share than expected during this period. Lipitor prescriptions now account for 42.7 percent of the market instead of the forecasted 43 percent. Brand and generic Pravachol combined took 5.7 percent of the market, as compared with a prior estimate of 5.9 percent. In April, Teva launched several doses of Pravachol.