DOMESTIC, GLOBAL PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET GROWTH EXPECTED TO SLOW
IMS Health projections predict a lower growth rate for the global pharmaceutical market in 2007, with the U.S. in particular contributing less due to generic competition and an increase in niche products.
Worldwide, IMS predicts a market growth of 5 to 6 percent in 2007, slightly lower than the 6 to 7 percent growth in 2006. The company's 2007 Pharmaceutical Market Forecast, released Oct. 25, said global sales should be between roughly $665 billion and $685 billion next year.
The U.S. market will grow only 4 to 5 percent in 2007, IMS said, down from the 6 to 7 percent increase this year. A major reason for the decline is that several brands will lose patent protection next year, opening the door for generics, the company noted.
Also, while growth is shifting from traditional markets to emerging ones, new products are generally more specialized and have smaller consumer bases, giving them a smaller impact on the overall market. IMS expects between 25 and 35 new products in 2007, comparable to the anticipated 30 product launches in 2006.
In 2002, the U.S. made up 54 percent of total market growth worldwide, whereas in 2007 it is expected to contribute only 36 percent. Countries like China, India, Brazil and Turkey will each expand more than 10 percent in the pharmaceutical business, IMS predicted.
In these countries, the markets are largely composed of locally produced generics, IMS said. Countries like these, with growing economies and populations and increasing healthcare availability, are filling in where the U.S. has fallen back.